Risk….how much risk is acceptable ?

Recent events surrounding the Titan sub has got the world thinking…..While wishing all involved in this tragic acicident RIP I think this is a good time as ever to revisi It the concept of “Risk”

Risk is inevitable, however well prepared you are , however intelligent or however wealthy you are. As motorists , pedestrians, surgeons, Endoscopists patients, we take risks each minute we are alive….there is no way around it….if you are totaly risk averse you should not get out of bed 🙂 …but then again that predisposes to DVT due to immobility and sudden death by pulmonary embolism !!!

So if Risk taking is an inevitable part of of life , what can one we do to mitigate the risks ? One important caveat is , eventhough we cannot remove ourselves totaly from exposure to risk, we can often set limits on what is an acceptable risk for us! In otherwords you would be able to set an arbitrary limit on what is an acceptable risk level for you!

How do we do that ? Risk assement tools are useful in many situations. As a surgeon I use a lot of risk assesmsnt tools in day to day practice – NELA score , Childs score are a few examples. But these are validated riak a outside professional life

One important risk assesment tool I picked up is from a book I read from the pioneering neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Benjamin Carson was the first black american neurosurgeon and pioneered the field of neurosurgery with many ground breaking operations. In his books he talks about a simple way to risk stratify any decision.I use this decision making tool every day and it has worked well for me…so far!

In any decision in life consider the following four scenarios

1. What is the best possible outcome If I take the proposed action ?

2. What is the worst possible out come if I take the proposed action ?

3. What is the best possible outcome if I do not take propsed action?

4. What is the worst possible outcome if i do not take proposed action ?

These 4 scenarios add clarity and greatly help with decision making. I have often used these to aid me in many difficult decision making sitiations i face as a surgeon…..I think they are equally applicable to many other professions , or for that matter , real life also!

With that I am going to wind up! Catch you soon! TC and stay safe!

LBS